January 2026 was a month of contrast. We increased volume again, placing 98 bets across 15 leagues and 134 teams, and finished marginally positive at +$39.71. The headline, though, is the hit rate dropping to 36.7% after December’s 50.8%. With a bankroll-linked flat stake, that kind of swing is the familiar texture of variance: the edge can still be present, but outcomes cluster the other way for a while, especially as we widen league coverage and take on more different team profiles.
Performance concentrated in a couple of places. The clearest signal came from the 1 (home win) market, our best performing bet type at 51.2% (21/41), which suggests our biggest model-versus-market gaps may have been found in more straightforward win propositions rather than the tighter outcomes that helped us in December. By competition, the Championship stood out at 66.7% over 12 bets, a respectable return on a meaningful slice of the month’s activity, while the broader set of leagues collectively pulled the overall hit rate down.
The main lesson from January is that scale and selectivity are not the same thing. More bets gave us more information, but not necessarily cleaner results, and the drop in hit rate is a reminder to keep judging performance through pricing and process rather than short-term outcomes. Going forward, we should review where the additional leagues are diluting our edge, and whether our strongest tendencies are emerging in specific markets (notably 1) and competitions (notably the Championship), while staying disciplined about sample size before we treat any of it as structural.
Performance concentrated in a couple of places. The clearest signal came from the 1 (home win) market, our best performing bet type at 51.2% (21/41), which suggests our biggest model-versus-market gaps may have been found in more straightforward win propositions rather than the tighter outcomes that helped us in December. By competition, the Championship stood out at 66.7% over 12 bets, a respectable return on a meaningful slice of the month’s activity, while the broader set of leagues collectively pulled the overall hit rate down.
The main lesson from January is that scale and selectivity are not the same thing. More bets gave us more information, but not necessarily cleaner results, and the drop in hit rate is a reminder to keep judging performance through pricing and process rather than short-term outcomes. Going forward, we should review where the additional leagues are diluting our edge, and whether our strongest tendencies are emerging in specific markets (notably 1) and competitions (notably the Championship), while staying disciplined about sample size before we treat any of it as structural.
Key Statistics
Performance overview for January 2026
BEST LEAGUE
Championship
England
66.7%
hit rate
8/12 bets
PROFIT
+$39.71
Profit for the month
HIT RATE
36.7%
36/98 bets won
BEST BET TYPE
1
51.2%
21/41
COVERAGE
15
leagues
134
teams
All Bets
Complete record of placed bets for this month
Jan 31, 20:05
Monaco vs Rennes
2 @ 3.81
Lost
$-15.63
Jan 31, 14:30
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
2 @ 3.40
Lost
$-15.32
Jan 31, 20:30
Alverca vs Estrela Amadora
1 @ 2.20
Lost
$-15.16
Jan 31, 13:00
Real Oviedo vs Girona
2 @ 2.87
Lost
$-15.01
Jan 31, 15:00
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
1 @ 3.14
Won
+$33.11
Jan 27, 20:00
Fiorentina vs Como
1 @ 3.68
Lost
$-15.79
Jan 26, 20:00
Norwich City vs Coventry City
1 @ 3.06
Won
+$31.02
Jan 25, 15:30
Nacional vs Rio Ave
2 @ 3.85
Lost
$-15.46
Jan 25, 15:00
Hearts vs Celtic
1 @ 3.24
Lost
$-15.31
Jan 25, 18:15
Mechelen vs Westerlo
1 @ 2.83
Lost
$-15.16
Jan 25, 17:30
Real Sociedad vs Celta de Vigo
2 @ 3.80
Lost
$-15.00
Jan 25, 16:15
Catanzaro vs Sampdoria
1 @ 2.30
Lost
$-14.41
Jan 25, 14:00
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
2 @ 2.12
Won
+$16.63
Jan 25, 16:30
SC Freiburg vs FC Köln
1 @ 2.02
Won
+$15.00
Jan 25, 14:30
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart
2 @ 2.28
Won
+$18.64
Jan 24, 20:05
Olympique Marseille vs Lens
2 @ 3.82
Lost
$-16.26
Jan 24, 16:15
Modena vs Palermo
2 @ 3.78
Lost
$-16.09
Jan 24, 20:30
Estoril vs Vitória Guimarães
2 @ 2.88
Lost
$-15.93
Jan 24, 15:15
Valencia vs Espanyol
X @ 3.25
Lost
$-15.77
Jan 24, 14:30
Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim
1 @ 3.15
Lost
$-15.61
Jan 24, 14:00
Cesena vs Bari 1908
X @ 3.80
Lost
$-15.30
Jan 24, 15:00
Blackburn Rovers vs Watford
1 @ 2.90
Lost
$-15.15
Jan 24, 15:00
Sheffield United vs Ipswich Town
1 @ 3.00
Won
+$30.92
Jan 23, 19:30
St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV
1 @ 3.04
Lost
$-16.06
Jan 23, 20:00
Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion
1 @ 2.70
Lost
$-15.90
Jan 23, 19:30
St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV
BTTS_YES @ 2.20
Lost
$-15.74
Jan 23, 19:45
Standard Liège vs Gent
2 @ 2.81
Won
+$29.36
Jan 23, 19:30
Carrarese vs Empoli
1 @ 2.41
Won
+$21.97
Jan 22, 20:00
Roma vs VfB Stuttgart
2 @ 3.60
Lost
$-16.06
Jan 22, 17:45
Brann vs FC Midtjylland
1 @ 3.67
Lost
$-15.90
Jan 22, 17:45
Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa
1 @ 2.60
Lost
$-15.74
Jan 22, 17:45
SC Freiburg vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
BTTS_YES @ 2.45
Lost
$-15.12
Jan 22, 17:45
PAOK vs Real Betis
1 @ 2.58
Won
+$24.63
Jan 22, 20:50
FC Utrecht vs Genk
2 @ 2.62
Won
+$25.00
Jan 22, 20:00
Sporting Braga vs Nottingham Forest
1 @ 2.88
Won
+$28.73
Jan 21, 20:00
Olympique Marseille vs Liverpool
1 @ 3.92
Lost
$-16.02
Jan 21, 17:45
Galatasaray vs Atlético Madrid
1 @ 3.35
Lost
$-15.71
Jan 21, 17:45
Qarabağ vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1 @ 3.25
Won
+$35.69
Jan 20, 20:00
Olympiacos F.C. vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 @ 2.52
Won
+$23.04
Jan 20, 19:45
Livingston vs St. Mirren
X @ 3.35
Won
+$35.27
Jan 20, 20:00
Tottenham Hotspur vs Borussia Dortmund
1 @ 2.91
Won
+$28.38
Jan 19, 20:00
Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth
1 @ 1.93
Lost
$-15.31
Jan 18, 16:30
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
2 @ 2.84
Lost
$-14.38
Jan 18, 17:30
Celta de Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano
X @ 3.40
Lost
$-14.24
Jan 18, 16:15
Palermo vs Spezia
X @ 3.80
Lost
$-14.09
Jan 18, 13:00
Getafe vs Valencia
2 @ 3.35
Won
+$34.83
Jan 18, 12:30
Gent vs Anderlecht
1 @ 3.15
Won
+$31.54
Jan 18, 16:15
Nantes vs Paris
2 @ 2.75
Won
+$25.41
Jan 17, 15:15
Mallorca vs Athletic Club
X @ 3.20
Lost
$-14.73
Jan 17, 14:30
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2 @ 3.00
Lost
$-14.58
Jan 17, 20:00
NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen
X @ 3.75
Lost
$-14.44
Jan 17, 15:00
Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield United
1 @ 3.54
Won
+$37.80
Jan 17, 15:00
Leeds United vs Fulham
2 @ 3.62
Lost
$-15.49
Jan 17, 18:00
Toulouse vs Nice
X @ 3.74
Lost
$-15.33
Jan 17, 14:30
FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05
X @ 3.80
Lost
$-15.18
Jan 17, 18:30
Bari 1908 vs Juve Stabia
1 @ 3.17
Lost
$-15.03
Jan 14, 20:00
Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano
2 @ 3.56
Lost
$-15.65
Jan 11, 15:30
Nacional vs Santa Clara
2 @ 2.91
Lost
$-15.76
Jan 11, 11:15
SC Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
2 @ 2.48
Lost
$-15.60
Jan 11, 15:15
Levante vs Espanyol
2 @ 2.41
Lost
$-15.44
Jan 11, 14:00
Fiorentina vs AC Milan
1 @ 3.72
Lost
$-15.13
Jan 11, 14:00
Dundee vs Hearts
BTTS_YES @ 2.15
Lost
$-14.98
Jan 11, 15:45
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles Almelo
X @ 3.90
Lost
$-14.83
Jan 11, 17:00
Hellas Verona vs Lazio
2 @ 2.52
Won
+$23.24
Jan 11, 15:30
Nacional vs Santa Clara
BTTS_YES @ 2.22
Won
+$17.92
Jan 10, 14:00
Südtirol vs Spezia
2 @ 3.61
Lost
$-16.19
Jan 10, 14:30
Heidenheim vs FC Köln
2 @ 2.47
Lost
$-15.87
Jan 10, 17:30
Girona vs Osasuna
2 @ 3.30
Lost
$-15.71
Jan 10, 14:30
SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV
X @ 3.68
Lost
$-15.39
Jan 10, 17:30
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
X @ 3.96
Lost
$-15.24
Jan 10, 14:00
Avellino vs Sampdoria
1 @ 3.19
Won
+$35.11
Jan 9, 20:00
Getafe vs Real Sociedad
2 @ 2.55
Won
+$24.46
Jan 7, 19:30
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
1 @ 3.25
Lost
$-16.10
Jan 6, 20:00
West Ham United vs Nottingham Forest
2 @ 2.40
Won
+$22.23
Jan 5, 20:00
Leicester City vs West Bromwich Albion
1 @ 2.85
Won
+$28.84
Jan 4, 11:30
Lazio vs Napoli
1 @ 3.80
Lost
$-15.35
Jan 4, 16:15
Le Havre vs Angers SCO
2 @ 3.79
Lost
$-15.04
Jan 4, 15:30
Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
2 @ 3.62
Lost
$-14.89
Jan 4, 18:00
Santa Clara vs Porto
BTTS_YES @ 2.62
Lost
$-14.74
Jan 4, 15:00
Bristol City vs Preston North End
X @ 3.72
Lost
$-14.30
Jan 4, 20:30
Alverca vs Famalicão
1 @ 3.91
Won
+$44.20
Jan 4, 12:00
Birmingham City vs Coventry City
1 @ 2.74
Won
+$25.39
Jan 4, 17:00
Hellas Verona vs Torino
2 @ 3.05
Won
+$29.62
Jan 3, 15:00
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United
2 @ 2.94
Lost
$-14.72
Jan 3, 12:30
Celtic vs Rangers
1 @ 1.96
Lost
$-14.57
Jan 3, 15:30
Tondela vs Arouca
2 @ 3.75
Lost
$-14.28
Jan 3, 18:00
Nice vs Strasbourg
1 @ 3.03
Lost
$-14.14
Jan 3, 15:00
Falkirk vs Aberdeen
1 @ 2.52
Won
+$22.83
Jan 3, 16:00
Monaco vs Olympique Lyonnais
2 @ 3.42
Won
+$35.99
Jan 3, 11:30
Como vs Udinese
1 @ 1.81
Won
+$11.68
Jan 3, 19:45
Atalanta vs Roma
1 @ 2.44
Won
+$20.16
Jan 2, 19:45
Toulouse vs Lens
2 @ 2.93
Won
+$28.43
Jan 1, 17:30
Crystal Palace vs Fulham
2 @ 3.70
Lost
$-14.01
Jan 1, 15:00
Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City
X @ 3.60
Lost
$-13.73
Jan 1, 20:00
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur
2 @ 3.27
Lost
$-13.59
Jan 1, 15:00
Watford vs Birmingham City
1 @ 2.40
Won
+$20.01
Jan 1, 15:00
Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion
1 @ 2.86
Won
+$26.32
Jan 1, 15:00
Charlton Athletic vs Coventry City
X @ 3.81
Won
+$38.97