Championship

Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion

Friday, 23 January | 20:00 CET | Pride Park Stadium
Final: 1-1

Derby County hosted West Bromwich Albion at Pride Park Stadium on 23 January (20:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 5.4 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.70.

The Scout's Take

The model assigns a home win a 42.4% chance, while the market implies only 37%.

Lost

The Position

1 @ 2.70
Home win
Stake
$15.90
Book
Dafabet
Placed
23 Jan, 13:03
Result
-$15.90
Model
40.2%
Market
37.0%
Edge
5.4%
Confidence
57%
CLV
-2.2%
Closing
2.76

Match Context

Rotation Risk: Derby County has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Must Win: West Bromwich Albion in position 19 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

Streak Watch: West Bromwich Albion without a win in 5 games (2 draws, 3 losses) - struggling for results

Away Struggles: West Bromwich Albion winless in last 8 away matches (2 draws, 6 losses) - poor away record

Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at

justfootballpredictions.com