Hearts hosted Celtic at Tynecastle Park on 25 January (15:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 13.1 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 3.24.
The model assigns a home win a 44% chance, while the market implies only 30.9%. A moderate-confidence position.
Title Race: Hearts leading the table - high motivation to maintain position
Title Race: Celtic in position 3, 6 points behind leader - competing for title
Rotation Risk: Celtic has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Home Fortress: Hearts unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws) - strong home advantage
High Scoring Pattern: Celtic involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Top Scorer Boost: Hearts has Lawrence Shankland ranked #3 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat
Top Scorer Boost: Celtic has Benjamin Nygren ranked #1 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com