December 2025 was a step forward on both volume and outcome. We placed 61 bets across 10 leagues and 83 teams, and finished up $379.51 with a 50.8% hit rate. Compared to November’s 39 bets and 43.6% hit rate, the process held up under a larger sample, and the bankroll-linked flat staking did what it is meant to do: keep exposure proportional while letting performance compound when results run in our favour.
A couple of patterns are worth noting without over-reading them. The draw (X) was our best performing bet type at 75% (3/4), which is more a small-sample signal than a settled edge, but it does suggest our pricing may be spotting tight, low-separation games where the market leans too decisively to one side. The Premier League stood out most clearly, landing 85.7% across 14 bets, which is the kind of league-level outperformance that deserves attention, even if the probability of regression is always present.
The main lesson from December is that our edge selection can survive an uptick in activity, and that performance can concentrate by league and market in ways that are useful for review. We should keep tracking results by bet type and competition, but remain disciplined about sample size before drawing strategic conclusions. If anything, December reinforces the value of staying systematic: follow the model-versus-market gap, accept variance, and let the longer run do the talking.
A couple of patterns are worth noting without over-reading them. The draw (X) was our best performing bet type at 75% (3/4), which is more a small-sample signal than a settled edge, but it does suggest our pricing may be spotting tight, low-separation games where the market leans too decisively to one side. The Premier League stood out most clearly, landing 85.7% across 14 bets, which is the kind of league-level outperformance that deserves attention, even if the probability of regression is always present.
The main lesson from December is that our edge selection can survive an uptick in activity, and that performance can concentrate by league and market in ways that are useful for review. We should keep tracking results by bet type and competition, but remain disciplined about sample size before drawing strategic conclusions. If anything, December reinforces the value of staying systematic: follow the model-versus-market gap, accept variance, and let the longer run do the talking.
Key Statistics
Performance overview for December 2025
BEST LEAGUE
Premier League
England
85.7%
hit rate
12/14 bets
PROFIT
+$379.51
Profit for the month
HIT RATE
50.8%
31/61 bets won
BEST BET TYPE
X
75.0%
3/4
COVERAGE
10
leagues
83
teams
All Bets
Complete record of placed bets for this month
Dec 30, 19:30
Nottingham Forest vs Everton
2 @ 4.00
Won
+$41.64
Dec 28, 16:30
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur
2 @ 3.34
Won
+$30.70
Dec 28, 15:30
Casa Pia vs Vitória Guimarães
2 @ 2.63
Lost
$-13.38
Dec 28, 15:30
Arouca vs Gil Vicente
X @ 3.40
Won
+$31.80
Dec 27, 15:00
Brentford vs AFC Bournemouth
1 @ 2.43
Won
+$18.75
Dec 27, 15:00
West Ham United vs Fulham
2 @ 2.63
Won
+$21.16
Dec 27, 15:00
Burnley vs Everton
1 @ 4.00
Lost
$-12.85
Dec 26, 15:00
Leicester City vs Watford
1 @ 2.33
Lost
$-13.14
Dec 26, 15:00
Portsmouth vs Queens Park Rangers
1 @ 3.13
Lost
$-13.01
Dec 26, 17:30
Wrexham vs Sheffield United
1 @ 3.15
Won
+$27.13
Dec 26, 15:00
West Bromwich Albion vs Bristol City
1 @ 2.13
Lost
$-12.88
Dec 26, 15:00
Stoke City vs Preston North End
2 @ 4.00
Lost
$-12.75
Dec 26, 20:00
Manchester United vs Newcastle United
1 @ 2.70
Won
+$21.91
Dec 22, 18:45
Alverca vs Porto
BTTS_YES @ 2.42
Lost
$-13.27
Dec 15, 17:30
Nacional vs Tondela
2 @ 3.21
Lost
$-13.09
Dec 15, 20:00
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Betis
X @ 3.40
Won
+$31.10
Dec 14, 14:00
Sunderland vs Newcastle United
1 @ 3.66
Won
+$31.95
Dec 14, 13:30
Ajax vs Feyenoord
1 @ 3.43
Won
+$28.89
Dec 14, 14:00
Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre
1 @ 1.67
Won
+$7.89
Dec 14, 14:00
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur
1 @ 2.75
Won
+$20.39
Dec 14, 14:00
West Ham United vs Aston Villa
2 @ 2.23
Won
+$14.18
Dec 14, 11:15
Sparta Rotterdam vs SC Heerenveen
1 @ 2.96
Lost
$-11.42
Dec 14, 14:00
Carrarese vs Virtus Entella
1 @ 2.49
Won
+$16.84
Dec 13, 15:00
Wrexham vs Watford
1 @ 2.82
Lost
$-11.07
Dec 13, 20:00
Getafe vs Espanyol
2 @ 3.31
Won
+$25.32
Dec 13, 15:00
Leicester City vs Ipswich Town
1 @ 3.54
Won
+$27.56
Dec 13, 14:00
Reggiana vs Calcio Padova
2 @ 3.87
Won
+$30.82
Dec 13, 20:05
Paris vs Toulouse
1 @ 2.79
Lost
$-10.64
Dec 13, 14:00
Juve Stabia vs Empoli
1 @ 2.40
Won
+$14.74
Dec 13, 14:00
Spezia vs Modena
1 @ 3.71
Lost
$-10.43
Dec 13, 14:30
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg
2 @ 3.62
Won
+$27.04
Dec 12, 20:00
Real Sociedad vs Girona
X @ 3.80
Lost
$-10.91
Dec 12, 19:30
FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
1 @ 3.55
Won
+$27.54
Dec 10, 19:45
Derby County vs Millwall
2 @ 2.96
Lost
$-11.13
Dec 10, 20:00
Hull City vs Wrexham
2 @ 2.90
Lost
$-11.02
Dec 9, 19:45
Preston North End vs Coventry City
1 @ 3.85
Lost
$-11.24
Dec 8, 20:30
Vitória Guimarães vs Gil Vicente
1 @ 2.93
Lost
$-11.47
Dec 8, 14:00
Mantova vs Reggiana
1 @ 2.47
Lost
$-11.35
Dec 7, 17:30
Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano
2 @ 3.38
Lost
$-11.23
Dec 7, 16:15
Empoli vs Palermo
1 @ 3.44
Lost
$-11.12
Dec 7, 14:30
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen
1 @ 2.50
Won
+$16.52
Dec 7, 15:30
Estoril vs Moreirense
2 @ 3.59
Lost
$-10.90
Dec 7, 16:30
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
2 @ 2.96
Won
+$21.15
Dec 7, 19:45
Lorient vs Olympique Lyonnais
1 @ 3.81
Won
+$30.01
Dec 7, 18:00
Alverca vs Nacional
2 @ 3.95
Lost
$-10.57
Dec 6, 14:30
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Union Berlin
2 @ 3.92
Lost
$-10.84
Dec 6, 15:00
Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford
1 @ 2.53
Won
+$16.42
Dec 6, 20:00
Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid
1 @ 3.35
Won
+$24.72
Dec 6, 15:30
Santa Clara vs Casa Pia
BTTS_YES @ 2.54
Lost
$-10.41
Dec 6, 15:00
Bristol City vs Millwall
2 @ 3.78
Won
+$28.66
Dec 6, 15:00
Newcastle United vs Burnley
BTTS_YES @ 2.08
Won
+$11.03
Dec 6, 15:00
Preston North End vs Wrexham
2 @ 3.30
Lost
$-10.11
Dec 5, 19:00
Excelsior vs FC Groningen
1 @ 3.72
Lost
$-10.90
Dec 5, 17:00
Slaven Koprivnica vs Gorica
2 @ 3.93
Lost
$-10.79
Dec 5, 20:15
Hull City vs Middlesbrough
2 @ 2.46
Won
+$15.61
Dec 3, 19:45
Falkirk vs Motherwell
1 @ 3.45
Lost
$-10.86
Dec 3, 19:30
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
2 @ 3.40
Won
+$25.80
Dec 3, 19:45
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
2 @ 3.53
Lost
$-10.64
Dec 2, 19:30
AFC Bournemouth vs Everton
1 @ 2.23
Lost
$-10.85
Dec 2, 13:30
Ajax vs FC Groningen
1 @ 2.09
Won
+$11.71
Dec 1, 20:00
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
X @ 3.34
Won
+$24.80