Nacional hosted Rio Ave at Estádio da Madeira on 25 January (15:30 CET). The model sees value in Away win, pricing it 15.6 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 2 @ 3.85.
The model assigns an away win a 41.6% chance, while the market implies only 26%. This is a higher-confidence selection.
Btts Tendency: Nacional matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Leaky Defense: Rio Ave has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals
Top Scorer Boost: Nacional has Jesús Ramírez ranked #4 in league scoring (13 goals) - strong attacking threat
Top Scorer Boost: Rio Ave has Clayton ranked #6 in league scoring (10 goals) - strong attacking threat
Market Disagreement: Model sees 29.0% home win vs 50.5% market consensus - lower probability, 21.5% gap
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com