Europa League

Sporting Braga vs Nottingham Forest

Thursday, 22 January | 20:00 CET | Estádio Municipal de Braga
Final: 1-0

Sporting Braga hosted Nottingham Forest at Estádio Municipal de Braga on 22 January (20:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 5.3 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.88.

The Scout's Take

The model assigns a home win a 40.1% chance, while the market implies only 34.7%. A moderate-confidence position.

Won

The Position

1 @ 2.88
Home win
Stake
$15.28
Book
1xbet
Placed
22 Jan, 08:03
Result
+$28.73
Model
40.1%
Market
34.7%
Edge
5.3%
Confidence
68%
CLV
-10.6%
Closing
3.22

Match Context

European Race: Sporting Braga in position 5 - competing for European qualification

Rotation Risk: Sporting Braga has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Rotation Risk: Nottingham Forest has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Must Win: Nottingham Forest in position 16 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at

justfootballpredictions.com