Champions League

Olympique Marseille vs Liverpool

Wednesday, 21 January | 20:00 CET | Stade Vélodrome
Final: 0-3

Olympique Marseille hosted Liverpool at Stade Vélodrome on 21 January (20:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 14.7 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 3.92.

The Scout's Take

The model assigns a home win a 40.2% chance, while the market implies only 25.5%. A moderate-confidence position.

Lost

The Position

1 @ 3.92
Home win
Stake
$16.02
Book
1xbet
Placed
21 Jan, 08:02
Result
-$16.02
Model
39.4%
Market
25.5%
Edge
14.7%
Confidence
69%
CLV
-1.0%
Closing
3.96

Match Context

European Race: Liverpool in position 4 - competing for European qualification

Rotation Risk: Olympique Marseille has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Rotation Risk: Liverpool has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Must Win: Olympique Marseille in position 19 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

Streak Watch: Liverpool unbeaten in 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) - solid defensive form

Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at

justfootballpredictions.com