March 2026 was a more difficult month on both accuracy and return. We placed 43 bets across 17 leagues and 75 teams, finishing down $240.46 with a 20.9% hit rate. Compared with February (68 bets, -$95.34), the volume fell again while league coverage widened, and the outcomes never really caught a stable rhythm. With a bankroll-linked flat stake, the unit size adjusted as intended, but it does not change the simple fact that a month with fewer wins will leave a clear mark.
The most usable signal, again, came from BTTS_YES. We hit 4 of 10 (40%), which is not a standout number in isolation, but it continues to look like the market where our modelling assumptions translate most cleanly into actionable edges. At league level, the Europa League went 4 from 5 (80%). It is the kind of spike that can be either insight or variance, and the sensible view is to log it as a watchlist item rather than a conclusion, particularly given the small sample and the different incentive structures that come with knockout football.
The main lesson from March is about where we ask the model to do its hardest work. Spreading 43 bets across 17 leagues is broad for the month’s volume, and it increases the chance that we are taking thinner, less repeatable edges to keep coverage high. Going into April, the process priority is to tighten the filter: lean more into markets where we repeatedly see model-to-market gaps (BTTS_YES remains the clearest candidate), and be more cautious about expanding league count unless we can show that the edge appears frequently and survives normal variance.
The most usable signal, again, came from BTTS_YES. We hit 4 of 10 (40%), which is not a standout number in isolation, but it continues to look like the market where our modelling assumptions translate most cleanly into actionable edges. At league level, the Europa League went 4 from 5 (80%). It is the kind of spike that can be either insight or variance, and the sensible view is to log it as a watchlist item rather than a conclusion, particularly given the small sample and the different incentive structures that come with knockout football.
The main lesson from March is about where we ask the model to do its hardest work. Spreading 43 bets across 17 leagues is broad for the month’s volume, and it increases the chance that we are taking thinner, less repeatable edges to keep coverage high. Going into April, the process priority is to tighten the filter: lean more into markets where we repeatedly see model-to-market gaps (BTTS_YES remains the clearest candidate), and be more cautious about expanding league count unless we can show that the edge appears frequently and survives normal variance.
Key Statistics
Performance overview for March 2026
BEST LEAGUE
Europa League
Europe
80.0%
hit rate
4/5 bets
PROFIT
$-240.46
Loss for the month
HIT RATE
20.9%
9/43 bets won
BEST BET TYPE
BTTS_YES
40.0%
4/10
COVERAGE
17
leagues
75
teams
All Bets
Complete record of placed bets for this month
Mar 22, 20:30
Sporting Braga vs Porto
1 @ 3.42
Lost
$-12.23
Mar 22, 23:00
San Diego vs Real Salt Lake
1 @ 2.10
Lost
$-12.11
Mar 22, 14:00
Olympique Lyonnais vs Monaco
1 @ 3.02
Lost
$-12.48
Mar 22, 13:30
Rosenborg vs Vålerenga
1 @ 2.28
Lost
$-12.36
Mar 21, 16:00
UCV Moquegua vs Cusco FC
1 @ 3.73
Lost
$-12.74
Mar 21, 15:15
FC Andorra vs SD Eibar
1 @ 2.47
Lost
$-12.61
Mar 20, 19:30
Huesca vs Almería
1 @ 3.82
Lost
$-13.13
Mar 20, 20:30
ADT vs Melgar
1 @ 2.80
Lost
$-12.99
Mar 20, 19:45
Genoa vs Udinese
BTTS_YES @ 2.15
Lost
$-12.86
Mar 20, 17:30
Cagliari vs Napoli
BTTS_YES @ 2.39
Lost
$-13.26
Mar 19, 20:00
Rayo Vallecano vs Samsunspor
X @ 3.95
Lost
$-13.18
Mar 19, 20:00
Sparta Praha vs AZ
1 @ 2.37
Lost
$-13.05
Mar 19, 20:00
Porto vs VfB Stuttgart
1 @ 2.55
Won
+$20.63
Mar 19, 17:45
FC Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest
1 @ 3.25
Lost
$-13.45
Mar 18, 20:00
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atlético Madrid
2 @ 2.82
Lost
$-13.58
Mar 15, 23:00
Cusco FC vs Cienciano
1 @ 2.24
Lost
$-13.72
Mar 15, 15:00
Antwerp vs Standard Liège
BTTS_YES @ 1.95
Won
+$12.91
Mar 14, 18:00
Angers SCO vs Nice
1 @ 3.47
Lost
$-13.87
Mar 14, 15:15
Atlético Madrid vs Getafe
BTTS_YES @ 2.56
Lost
$-13.73
Mar 14, 15:00
OFI vs Olympiacos F.C.
BTTS_YES @ 2.47
Lost
$-14.01
Mar 13, 20:00
FC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos
1 @ 2.10
Lost
$-14.15
Mar 12, 20:00
Genk vs SC Freiburg
1 @ 2.74
Won
+$22.79
Mar 12, 20:00
Ferencvárosi vs Sporting Braga
1 @ 3.30
Won
+$29.83
Mar 12, 17:45
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano
1 @ 3.91
Lost
$-13.36
Mar 12, 17:45
Panathinaikos vs Real Betis
1 @ 3.98
Won
+$39.43
Mar 11, 20:00
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
1 @ 3.83
Won
+$36.79
Mar 10, 20:00
Newcastle United vs FC Barcelona
2 @ 2.54
Lost
$-13.13
Mar 8, 20:30
Santa Clara vs Vitória Guimarães
BTTS_YES @ 2.14
Lost
$-12.98
Mar 8, 16:45
Vukovar vs Rijeka
1 @ 3.99
Lost
$-13.38
Mar 8, 17:30
Leganés vs SD Eibar
1 @ 2.83
Lost
$-13.11
Mar 8, 18:00
Benfica vs Porto
BTTS_YES @ 2.10
Won
+$14.56
Mar 8, 14:00
Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
1 @ 3.35
Lost
$-13.65
Mar 8, 14:30
St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1 @ 2.86
Lost
$-13.51
Mar 7, 20:00
Málaga vs Real Valladolid
1 @ 2.12
Lost
$-13.79
Mar 7, 18:00
Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP
1 @ 3.89
Lost
$-13.72
Mar 7, 17:30
Burgos vs Mirandés
BTTS_YES @ 2.38
Lost
$-13.59
Mar 7, 14:30
SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 @ 3.09
Lost
$-13.86
Mar 7, 12:15
Mansfield Town vs Arsenal
BTTS_YES @ 2.40
Won
+$19.60
Mar 1, 19:45
Roma vs Juventus
1 @ 2.73
Lost
$-13.83
Mar 1, 18:30
Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig
1 @ 3.90
Lost
$-14.25
Mar 1, 16:15
Metz vs Brest
1 @ 3.52
Lost
$-14.11
Mar 1, 16:15
Dinamo Zagreb vs Gorica
BTTS_YES @ 2.23
Won
+$17.18
Mar 1, 12:00
Rangers vs Celtic
1 @ 2.27
Lost
$-14.40