Thursday, 19 February

Read the game before it's played

Data-driven football betting analysis. We identify value, track every bet, and share the results — wins and losses alike.

$1,431.23
Bankroll
+$431.23
Profit
+13.5%
ROI

Today's Brief

Full report
Afternoon Report 13:00
No bets were placed in the morning session. The day’s context remains anchored by yesterday’s results: two bets settled, both lost, net -$29.37, with the largest single loss -$14.76 from Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid (1). The current bankroll stands at $1,446.25. Five fixtures form the evening win...
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The Morning Line

Today’s picks, followed from early analysis to final whistle.

20:00
Europa League Europa League
Placed
Celtic Celtic 1
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 2
Selection
1 @ 3.92
Edge
32.60%

home - EV: +1.3642, Consensus edge: 32.6%, Confidence: 59.1%

20:00
Europa Conference League Europa Conference League
Placed
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok 0
Fiorentina Fiorentina 0
Selection
1 @ 3.00
Edge
17.50%

home - EV: +0.5715, Consensus edge: 17.5%, Confidence: 52.7%

17:45
Europa League Europa League
Lost
PAOK PAOK 1
Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 2
Selection
1 @ 2.66
Edge
17.70%
CLV
-9.2%
Closing
2.93
Profit
$-14.46

home - EV: +0.5235, Consensus edge: 17.7%, Confidence: 59.7%

17:45
Europa Conference League Europa Conference League
Won
Noah Noah 1
AZ AZ 0
Selection
1 @ 3.90
Edge
8.00%
CLV
-4.9%
Closing
4.10
Profit
+$41.53

home - EV: +0.3703, Consensus edge: 8%, Confidence: 51.8%

17:45
Europa Conference League Europa Conference League
Lost
KuPS KuPS 0
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań 2
Selection
BTTS Yes @ 1.95
Edge
5.30%
CLV
+3.7%
Closing
1.88
Profit
$-14.17

BTTS - EV: +0.1468, Consensus edge: 5.3%, Confidence: 57.6%

Leagues We Cover

European leagues selected for their statistical stability and predictable patterns.

Key Statistics

A quiet overview of performance across leagues and markets.

Best League
Premier League
Premier League
England
63.0% hit rate 17/27 bets
Profit
+$431
Up from start
ROI
+13.5%
Return on investment
Hit Rate
40.8%
Winning picks
Total Bets
240
Settled picks
Avg CLV
-2.7%
Closing line value
CLV Success
35%
Beat closing line
Recent Form
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
Last 10 settled bets
Avg Odds
3.07
Risk profile
Current Streak
2L
Losses in a row

How It Works

The Numbers

This project began in November 2025 with a starting bankroll of $1,000. Each bet uses flat one-unit staking, where one unit equals 1% of the current bankroll. As the bankroll grows or shrinks, so does the stake — a simple approach that manages risk while allowing for growth.

The Process

Each morning at 08:00 CET, we review upcoming fixtures from a small selection of European leagues known for their statistical reliability. The process is deliberate. A limited number of matches are tracked through the day, with final decisions made close to kickoff, when prices have settled and information is clearer.

We focus on simple markets — 1, X, 2, or BTTS — not because others don't exist, but because clarity matters more than complexity.

If value remains when the match approaches, the bet is placed. If the market moves against it, we let it go.

Every outcome is documented — placed or skipped, won or lost. No rewriting. No hiding.

This is not financial advice. Informed betting requires your own judgment. We simply share our analysis.