Today's Brief
Full reportThe Morning Line
Today’s picks, followed from early analysis to final whistle.
Bundesliga
St. Pauli
2
Werder Bremen
1
home - EV: +0.1942, Consensus edge: 5.7%, Confidence: 55.5%
Serie A
Atalanta
2
Napoli
1
home - EV: +0.381, Consensus edge: 12.3%, Confidence: 54.1%
Championship
Sheffield United
2
Sheffield Wednesday
1
BTTS - EV: +0.1974, Consensus edge: 5.6%, Confidence: 54.6%
Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
home - EV: +0.1902, Consensus edge: 7.8%, Confidence: 53.6%
Leagues We Cover
European leagues selected for their statistical stability and predictable patterns.
Key Statistics
A quiet overview of performance across leagues and markets.
How It Works
The Numbers
This project began in November 2025 with a starting bankroll of $1,000. Each bet uses flat one-unit staking, where one unit equals 1% of the current bankroll. As the bankroll grows or shrinks, so does the stake — a simple approach that manages risk while allowing for growth.
The Process
Each morning at 08:00 CET, we review upcoming fixtures from a small selection of European leagues known for their statistical reliability. The process is deliberate. A limited number of matches are tracked through the day, with final decisions made close to kickoff, when prices have settled and information is clearer.
We focus on simple markets — 1, X, 2, or BTTS — not because others don't exist, but because clarity matters more than complexity.
If value remains when the match approaches, the bet is placed. If the market moves against it, we let it go.
Every outcome is documented — placed or skipped, won or lost. No rewriting. No hiding.
This is not financial advice. Informed betting requires your own judgment. We simply share our analysis.