SC Freiburg hosted FC Köln at Europa-Park Stadion on 25 January (16:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 8.1 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.02.
The model assigns a home win a 57.6% chance, while the market implies only 49.5%. A moderate-confidence position.
Rotation Risk: SC Freiburg has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Home Fortress: SC Freiburg unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (7 wins, 1 draws) - strong home advantage
Btts Tendency: FC Köln matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Leaky Defense: FC Köln has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals
Top Scorer Boost: FC Köln has Said El Mala ranked #7 in league scoring (7 goals) - strong attacking threat
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com