February 2026 was a quieter month in volume but a tougher one in outcomes. We placed 68 bets across 14 leagues and 100 teams, and finished down $95.34 with a 35.3% hit rate. After January’s narrow profit (+$39.71) on higher volume, this was a reminder that a bankroll-linked flat stake does not soften a downswing; it simply keeps exposure proportional while variance does the rest. The hit rate ticked slightly lower again, and the month never quite found the same foothold in results that carried us through parts of January.
The clearest positive signal came from BTTS_YES, where we landed 4 of 8 (50%). It is a small sample, but it suggests our edge may be presenting more cleanly when the market is pricing game state and match-up dynamics rather than the full three-way result. By league, La Liga 2 stood out at 66.7% from three bets, though that’s more a note for the watchlist than a conclusion. With fewer bets overall, it also takes less to skew the month, which is part of the story here.
The main lesson from February is about selectivity under expansion. We stayed broad in league coverage, but the combination of modest volume and a negative month increases the importance of reviewing where our model-to-market gaps are both frequent and stable. For March, the process question is whether we tighten the filter to the leagues and markets where we repeatedly see pricing edges, and treat pockets like BTTS_YES and La Liga 2 as early tendencies rather than a new baseline.
The clearest positive signal came from BTTS_YES, where we landed 4 of 8 (50%). It is a small sample, but it suggests our edge may be presenting more cleanly when the market is pricing game state and match-up dynamics rather than the full three-way result. By league, La Liga 2 stood out at 66.7% from three bets, though that’s more a note for the watchlist than a conclusion. With fewer bets overall, it also takes less to skew the month, which is part of the story here.
The main lesson from February is about selectivity under expansion. We stayed broad in league coverage, but the combination of modest volume and a negative month increases the importance of reviewing where our model-to-market gaps are both frequent and stable. For March, the process question is whether we tighten the filter to the leagues and markets where we repeatedly see pricing edges, and treat pockets like BTTS_YES and La Liga 2 as early tendencies rather than a new baseline.
Key Statistics
Performance overview for February 2026
BEST LEAGUE
La Liga 2
Spain
66.7%
hit rate
2/3 bets
PROFIT
$-95.34
Loss for the month
HIT RATE
35.3%
24/68 bets won
BEST BET TYPE
BTTS_YES
50.0%
4/8
COVERAGE
14
leagues
100
teams
All Bets
Complete record of placed bets for this month
Feb 28, 15:15
Real Zaragoza vs Burgos
1 @ 3.05
Lost
$-14.32
Feb 28, 17:00
Hellas Verona vs Napoli
BTTS_YES @ 2.56
Won
+$22.11
Feb 28, 14:30
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05
1 @ 1.77
Lost
$-14.76
Feb 28, 13:00
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
1 @ 2.58
Lost
$-14.61
Feb 28, 15:00
Queens Park Rangers vs Sheffield United
BTTS_YES @ 1.80
Lost
$-14.46
Feb 26, 20:00
Crystal Palace vs Zrinjski
BTTS_YES @ 2.75
Lost
$-14.90
Feb 26, 17:45
Crvena Zvezda vs LOSC Lille
1 @ 2.92
Lost
$-15.06
Feb 25, 19:45
Norwich City vs Sheffield Wednesday
BTTS_YES @ 2.24
Lost
$-14.44
Feb 25, 18:00
Ceuta vs Córdoba
1 @ 2.94
Won
+$28.58
Feb 25, 17:45
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund
1 @ 2.25
Won
+$18.23
Feb 24, 19:45
Dundee United vs Aberdeen
1 @ 2.19
Lost
$-14.74
Feb 24, 20:00
Newcastle United vs Qarabağ
BTTS_YES @ 1.98
Won
+$14.30
Feb 22, 16:30
St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen
1 @ 2.75
Won
+$23.64
Feb 22, 14:00
Atalanta vs Napoli
1 @ 2.73
Won
+$24.08
Feb 22, 12:00
Sheffield United vs Sheffield Wednesday
BTTS_YES @ 2.40
Won
+$19.29
Feb 22, 14:30
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
1 @ 2.05
Won
+$14.33
Feb 21, 19:45
Cagliari vs Lazio
1 @ 3.70
Lost
$-14.21
Feb 21, 19:30
St. Mirren vs Motherwell
1 @ 3.25
Lost
$-14.06
Feb 21, 18:30
Carrarese vs Monza
1 @ 3.97
Lost
$-13.75
Feb 21, 15:00
Aberdeen vs Dundee
1 @ 2.14
Lost
$-13.61
Feb 21, 14:30
FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim
1 @ 3.50
Lost
$-14.17
Feb 21, 14:00
Mantova vs Sampdoria
1 @ 3.12
Won
+$29.74
Feb 21, 13:00
Leganés vs Cultural Leonesa
BTTS_YES @ 2.11
Won
+$15.42
Feb 20, 20:45
Estrela Amadora vs Tondela
1 @ 2.96
Lost
$-14.31
Feb 19, 20:00
Celtic vs VfB Stuttgart
1 @ 3.92
Lost
$-14.03
Feb 19, 20:00
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Fiorentina
1 @ 3.00
Lost
$-13.89
Feb 19, 17:45
PAOK vs Celta de Vigo
1 @ 2.66
Lost
$-14.46
Feb 19, 17:45
KuPS vs Lech Poznań
BTTS_YES @ 1.95
Lost
$-14.17
Feb 19, 17:45
Noah vs AZ
1 @ 3.90
Won
+$41.53
Feb 18, 20:00
Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid
1 @ 3.95
Lost
$-14.76
Feb 18, 20:00
Olympiacos F.C. vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 @ 2.65
Lost
$-14.61
Feb 17, 20:00
Benfica vs Real Madrid
1 @ 3.80
Lost
$-14.23
Feb 17, 20:15
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
1 @ 2.19
Won
+$16.77
Feb 17, 17:45
Galatasaray vs Juventus
1 @ 3.45
Won
+$35.23
Feb 16, 19:45
Cagliari vs Lecce
1 @ 2.40
Lost
$-14.52
Feb 16, 18:00
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Silkeborg IF
2 @ 3.69
Lost
$-14.67
Feb 15, 19:45
Napoli vs Roma
2 @ 3.46
Lost
$-14.32
Feb 15, 19:45
Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice
1 @ 1.84
Won
+$11.91
Feb 15, 16:15
Metz vs Auxerre
1 @ 3.20
Lost
$-14.76
Feb 15, 17:00
Viborg FF vs Brøndby IF
2 @ 2.73
Lost
$-14.46
Feb 15, 17:00
Torino vs Bologna
2 @ 2.57
Won
+$22.94
Feb 15, 14:00
Parma vs Hellas Verona
2 @ 3.72
Lost
$-14.73
Feb 15, 14:00
Le Havre vs Toulouse
2 @ 2.47
Lost
$-14.58
Feb 15, 11:30
Udinese vs Sassuolo
2 @ 3.25
Won
+$32.47
Feb 14, 15:30
Casa Pia vs Arouca
2 @ 2.75
Lost
$-14.87
Feb 14, 14:30
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
2 @ 3.76
Lost
$-15.02
Feb 13, 19:30
Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05
1 @ 1.67
Won
+$10.00
Feb 11, 20:00
Motherwell vs Rangers
1 @ 3.30
Lost
$-15.08
Feb 9, 20:45
Porto vs Sporting CP
1 @ 2.57
Lost
$-14.66
Feb 9, 18:00
Vejle Boldklub vs Fredericia
2 @ 3.80
Won
+$41.47
Feb 8, 16:15
Auxerre vs Paris
2 @ 3.13
Lost
$-14.77
Feb 8, 17:00
Brøndby IF vs Randers FC
2 @ 4.00
Lost
$-14.62
Feb 8, 13:00
Silkeborg IF vs Viborg FF
1 @ 3.27
Lost
$-15.07
Feb 8, 14:00
Lecce vs Udinese
2 @ 2.74
Lost
$-14.92
Feb 8, 15:00
FC Midtjylland vs FC København
1 @ 2.20
Won
+$18.26
Feb 7, 20:30
Arouca vs Vitória Guimarães
2 @ 2.69
Lost
$-15.25
Feb 7, 20:05
Nantes vs Olympique Lyonnais
2 @ 1.82
Won
+$12.37
Feb 7, 18:00
Brest vs Lorient
2 @ 3.38
Lost
$-15.09
Feb 7, 14:30
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
1 @ 2.05
Won
+$16.00
Feb 6, 19:45
Hellas Verona vs Pisa
2 @ 3.50
Lost
$-15.55
Feb 6, 19:30
FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
2 @ 3.68
Lost
$-15.39
Feb 5, 20:00
Atalanta vs Juventus
1 @ 3.35
Won
+$35.70
Feb 2, 19:45
Udinese vs Roma
2 @ 2.02
Lost
$-15.34
Feb 1, 20:00
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
2 @ 3.61
Lost
$-15.35
Feb 1, 14:00
Hibernian vs Rangers
1 @ 3.30
Lost
$-15.20
Feb 1, 16:15
Angers SCO vs Metz
2 @ 3.56
Lost
$-15.04
Feb 1, 15:30
Gil Vicente vs Famalicão
1 @ 2.91
Won
+$28.44
Feb 1, 14:00
Olympique Lyonnais vs LOSC Lille
1 @ 2.13
Won
+$16.66