La Liga

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

Sunday, 1 February | 20:00 CET | San Mamés Barria
Final: 1-1

Athletic Club hosted Real Sociedad at San Mamés Barria on 1 February (20:00 CET). The model sees value in Away win, pricing it 11.2 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 2 @ 3.61.

The Scout's Take

The model assigns an away win a 38.9% chance, while the market implies only 27.7%.

Lost

The Position

2 @ 3.61
Away win
Stake
$15.35
Book
Pinnacle
Placed
1 Feb, 10:42
Result
-$15.35
Model
39.1%
Market
27.7%
Edge
11.2%
Confidence
51%
CLV
-1.1%
Closing
3.65

Match Context

European Race: Real Sociedad in position 8 - competing for Conference League qualification

Rotation Risk: Athletic Club has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Streak Watch: Real Sociedad unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form

Btts Tendency: Athletic Club matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 8 of last 8 matches (100%) - favors BTTS Yes

Btts Tendency: Real Sociedad matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 8 of last 8 matches (100%) - favors BTTS Yes

Leaky Defense: Athletic Club has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Leaky Defense: Real Sociedad has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Top Scorer Boost: Real Sociedad has Mikel Oyarzabal ranked #9 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat

Position Favorite Mismatch: Athletic Club (position 14) is favorite despite being 6 places below Real Sociedad (position 8) - potential upset or market overreaction

Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at

justfootballpredictions.com