Bundesliga

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05

Saturday, 28 February | 14:30 CET | BayArena
Final: 1-1

Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosted FSV Mainz 05 at BayArena today (14:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 10.4 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 1.77.

The Scout's Take

The model assigns a home win a 68.6% chance, while the market implies only 56.5%.

Lost

The Position

1 @ 1.77
Home win
Stake
$14.76
Book
Dafabet
Placed
28 Feb, 08:03
Result
-$14.76
Model
67.9%
Market
56.5%
Edge
10.4%
Confidence
52%
CLV
+1.1%
Closing
1.75

Match Context

European Race: Bayer 04 Leverkusen in position 6 - competing for Conference League qualification

Rotation Risk: Bayer 04 Leverkusen has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Btts Tendency: FSV Mainz 05 matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Top Scorer Boost: FSV Mainz 05 has Nadiem Amiri ranked #9 in league scoring (10 goals) - strong attacking threat

More context and tracked performance details are available at

thebettingscout.com