St. Mirren hosted Motherwell at The Smisa Stadium on 21 February (19:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 7.7 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 3.25.
The model assigns a home win a 41.4% chance, while the market implies only 30.8%.
Relegation Zone: St. Mirren in position 10 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
Streak Watch: Motherwell unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draws) - solid defensive form
Defensive Fortress: Motherwell has excellent defensive record: 6 clean sheets in last 8 matches (75%) - favors Under/BTTS No
Top Scorer Boost: Motherwell has Tawanda Maswanhise ranked #1 in league scoring (14 goals) - strong attacking threat
Market Disagreement: Model sees 39.9% home win vs 9.0% market consensus - higher probability, 30.9% gap
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on home win: 2.74 (188Bet) to 51.00 (Betfair) - 34.5% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on draw: 3.02 (MelBet) to 15.00 (Betfair) - 26.4% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.04 (Betsson) to 2.40 (Betway) - 54.5% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com