Estrela Amadora hosted Tondela at Estádio José Gomes today (20:45 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 9 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.96.
The model assigns a home win a 45.2% chance, while the market implies only 33.8%.
Relegation Zone: Tondela in position 16 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
Must Win: Tondela in position 16 with poor recent form (27% points) - must-win situation
Streak Watch: Tondela without a win in 5 games (3 draws, 2 losses) - struggling for results
Market Disagreement: Model sees 45.2% home win vs 24.9% market consensus - higher probability, 20.3% gap
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on home win: 2.38 (188Bet) to 8.22 (CloudBet) - 29.9% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.50 (Cashpoint) to 2.95 (188Bet) - 32.8% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com