Casa Pia hosted Arouca at Campo do Cevadeiro today (15:30 CET). The model sees value in Away win, pricing it 6.5 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 2 @ 2.75.
The model assigns an away win a 42.9% chance, while the market implies only 36.4%.
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on home win: 1.44 (bwin) to 3.08 (Pinnacle) - 37.0% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on away win: 2.31 (HKJC) to 9.07 (CloudBet) - 32.3% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com