Mantova hosted Sampdoria at Stadio Danilo Martelli on 21 February (14:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 6.9 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 3.12.
The model assigns a home win a 40.9% chance, while the market implies only 32.1%.
Btts Tendency: Mantova matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Leaky Defense: Mantova has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals
Top Scorer Boost: Sampdoria has Massimo Coda ranked #8 in league scoring (9 goals) - strong attacking threat
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on home win: 2.75 (Unibet) to 8.00 (MelBet) - 23.9% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.44 (Betfair) to 2.65 (Dafabet) - 31.7% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com