Borussia Dortmund hosted FSV Mainz 05 at Signal Iduna Park today (19:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 6.8 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 1.67.
The model assigns a home win a 66.7% chance, while the market implies only 59.9%.
Title Race: Borussia Dortmund in position 2, 3 points behind leader - competing for title
Top Scorer Boost: Borussia Dortmund has Serhou Guirassy ranked #4 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat
Top Scorer Boost: FSV Mainz 05 has Nadiem Amiri ranked #8 in league scoring (9 goals) - strong attacking threat
Market Disagreement: Model sees 39.5% BTTS vs 61.7% market consensus - lower probability, 22.2% gap
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com