Porto hosted Sporting CP at Estádio Do Dragão today (20:45 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 6.4 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.57.
The model assigns a home win a 45.3% chance, while the market implies only 38.9%.
Title Race: Porto leading the table - high motivation to maintain position
Title Race: Sporting CP in position 2, 4 points behind leader - competing for title
Streak Watch: Sporting CP on 5-game winning streak - exceptional form
Home Fortress: Porto unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (8 wins, 0 draws) - strong home advantage
High Scoring Pattern: Sporting CP involved in high-scoring games: 9 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Btts Tendency: Sporting CP matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Defensive Fortress: Porto has excellent defensive record: 5 clean sheets in last 8 matches (62%) - favors Under/BTTS No
Top Scorer Boost: Porto has Samu Aghehowa ranked #4 in league scoring (13 goals) - strong attacking threat
Top Scorer Boost: Sporting CP has Luis Suárez ranked #2 in league scoring (18 goals) - strong attacking threat
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com