Atalanta hosted Napoli at Gewiss Stadium today (14:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 12.3 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.73.
The model assigns a home win a 50.6% chance, while the market implies only 36.6%.
European Race: Atalanta in position 7 - competing for European qualification
Rotation Risk: Atalanta has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Btts Tendency: Napoli matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 7 of last 8 matches (88%) - favors BTTS Yes
Leaky Defense: Napoli has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals
Top Scorer Boost: Atalanta has Nikola Krstović ranked #8 in league scoring (7 goals) - strong attacking threat
Top Scorer Boost: Napoli has Rasmus Højlund ranked #6 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com