Carrarese hosted Monza at Stadio dei Marmi on 21 February (18:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 11.6 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 3.97.
The model assigns a home win a 39% chance, while the market implies only 25.2%.
Title Race: Monza in position 2, 2 points behind leader - competing for title
Streak Watch: Carrarese without a win in 5 games (1 draws, 4 losses) - struggling for results
Streak Watch: Monza unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draws) - solid defensive form
Market Disagreement: Model sees 37.9% home win vs 11.5% market consensus - higher probability, 26.4% gap
Market Disagreement: Model sees 31.6% away win vs 55.9% market consensus - lower probability, 24.2% gap
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on home win: 3.47 (Sbo) to 26.00 (Betfair) - 25.0% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.17 (Betfair) to 2.08 (Dafabet) - 37.4% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com