Bundesliga

St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen

Sunday, 22 February | 16:30 CET | Millerntor-Stadion
Final: 2-1

St. Pauli hosted Werder Bremen at Millerntor-Stadion today (16:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 5.7 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.75.

The Scout's Take

The model assigns a home win a 43.4% chance, while the market implies only 36.4%.

Won

The Position

1 @ 2.75
Home win
Stake
$13.51
Book
bwin
Placed
22 Feb, 14:01
Result
+$23.64
Model
44.4%
Market
36.4%
Edge
5.7%
Confidence
56%
CLV
-2.1%
Closing
2.81

Match Context

Relegation Zone: St. Pauli in position 16 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

Relegation Zone: Werder Bremen in position 17 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

Must Win: St. Pauli in position 16 with poor recent form (7% points) - must-win situation

Must Win: Werder Bremen in position 17 with poor recent form (7% points) - must-win situation

Streak Watch: Werder Bremen without a win in 5 games (1 draws, 4 losses) - struggling for results

Away Struggles: Werder Bremen winless in last 8 away matches (2 draws, 6 losses) - poor away record

Btts Tendency: St. Pauli matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Leaky Defense: Werder Bremen has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at

justfootballpredictions.com