St. Pauli hosted Werder Bremen at Millerntor-Stadion today (16:30 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 5.7 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 2.75.
The model assigns a home win a 43.4% chance, while the market implies only 36.4%.
Relegation Zone: St. Pauli in position 16 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
Relegation Zone: Werder Bremen in position 17 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
Must Win: St. Pauli in position 16 with poor recent form (7% points) - must-win situation
Must Win: Werder Bremen in position 17 with poor recent form (7% points) - must-win situation
Streak Watch: Werder Bremen without a win in 5 games (1 draws, 4 losses) - struggling for results
Away Struggles: Werder Bremen winless in last 8 away matches (2 draws, 6 losses) - poor away record
Btts Tendency: St. Pauli matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Leaky Defense: Werder Bremen has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com