April 2026

April 2026 was quieter in volume and still negative on return. We placed 12 bets across 8 leagues and 24 teams, finishing down $114.22 with an 8.3% hit rate. Compared with March, the loss was smaller in absolute terms, but the accuracy dipped further, and with a bankroll-linked flat stake the unit size did what it should while the month’s results still pulled the bankroll lower.

The most consistent signal remained BTTS_YES. We landed 1 of 3 (33.3%), which is not enough to draw conclusions, but it continues to be the market where our model-to-market gaps look most repeatable. Serie A also stood out at 1 of 3 (33.3%), again a small sample, but useful as a prompt to keep that league on the watchlist rather than spreading ourselves too thin when the slate is limited.

The main lesson from April is about selectivity under low volume. Cutting back from March’s breadth was the right direction, but 12 bets across 8 leagues still implies we are often reaching for edges in unfamiliar conditions. Going into May, the priority is to tighten the filter further: concentrate exposure in the markets and leagues where we repeatedly see clean pricing gaps, and accept fewer bets when the edge signal is thin rather than forcing coverage.