Betting Basics

Core concepts for analytical betting: probability, expected value, and common decision traps.

Closing Line Value Explained

The single best indicator of betting skill. Why beating the closing line matters more than short-term profit.

Feb 1, 2026 · clv market-efficiency measurement

Common cognitive errors that destroy bankrolls. Recognizing these patterns in yourself is the first step to avoiding them.

Feb 1, 2026 · psychology cognitive-bias discipline

Before you can find value, you need to think in probabilities. How to convert between odds formats and develop probabilistic intuition.

Feb 1, 2026 · probability odds fundamentals

Why your recent results tell you almost nothing. Understanding variance is the key to maintaining sanity and strategy during inevitable losing runs.

Feb 1, 2026 · variance sample-size psychology

Expected value is the single most important concept in betting. If you understand nothing else, understand this.

Feb 1, 2026 · expected-value mathematics fundamentals

Most football fans achieve decent hit rates but still lose money. The uncomfortable truth: profitable betting isn't about being right more often.

Jan 24, 2026 · edge probability expected-value