Varaždin hosted Gorica at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec on 26 January (15:00 CET). The model sees value in Home win, pricing it 23.1 percentage points higher than the market consensus. We backed 1 @ 4.00.
The model assigns a home win a 48.1% chance, while the market implies only 25%. A moderate-confidence position.
Relegation Zone: Gorica in position 8 (near relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
Market Disagreement: Model sees 20.9% away win vs 41.2% market consensus - lower probability, 20.2% gap
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on home win: 1.90 (bet365) to 4.00 (Pinnacle) - 27.6% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Bookmaker Disagreement: Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.90 (10Bet) to 3.90 (bet365) - 27.0% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Full fixture context and statistical breakdown available at
justfootballpredictions.com